# Norion Bank - tabeller och källdata 2026-05-26

Ej investeringsråd.

## Source sweep log

| Source | Category | URL | Key use | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norion Q1 2026 interim report | Primary | https://storage.mfn.se/dcb49136-ab27-4340-8d57-c39c2c96a280/norion-bank-ab-interim-report-january-march-2026.pdf | Latest financials, segment data, Stage 3, capital, buyback, post-period events. | Done |
| MFN Q1 2026 release | Primary | https://mfn.se/a/norion-bank/interim-report-january-march-2026.iframe | Report release and Q1 highlight cross-check. | Done |
| Norion annual report 2025 | Primary | https://storage.mfn.se/e15ee03e-5531-46d3-8029-6599051fe2e6/norion-bank-ab-annual-report-2025.pdf | Full-year baseline, governance, risk, audit, segment and capital history. | Done |
| FI base prospectus 2026 | Regulatory | https://www.fi.se/en/our-registers/prospektregistret/GetFile?format=application%2Fpdf&id=26-5642&name=26-5642.pdf | Debt programme, issuer risk and regulatory disclosure. | Done |
| Norion financial information | Primary IR | https://www.norionbank.se/investor-relations/finansiell-information | Report hub and calendar context. | Done |
| Norion key ratios | Primary IR | https://www.norionbank.no/investor-relations/finansiell-information/nyckeltal | Q1/FY key ratio cross-check. | Done |
| Norion shareholder page | Primary IR | https://www.norionbank.no/investor-relations/finansiell-information/aktien/aktieagare | Pre-distribution ownership baseline. | Done |
| Norion credit rating page | Primary IR | https://www.norionbank.se/en-SE/investor-relations-en/financial-information/debt-investors/credit-rating | NCR rating and outlook history. | Done |
| Balder distribution release | Primary company release | https://www.balder.se/en/about-balder/press/05112026-1155/balder-has-determined-the-exchange-ratio-for-the-distribution-of-shares-in-norion-bank | 47.7% Norion share distribution mechanics. | Done |
| Strand acquisition release | Primary release | https://www.mfn.se/a/norion-bank/norion-bank-has-entered-into-an-agreement-to-acquire-strand-kapitalforvaltning-strengthening-its-position-within-wealth-management | Wealth Management AUM and timing. | Done |
| AT1 May 2026 release | Primary release | https://storage.mfn.se/2d7cc5f9-ae84-4daf-bd95-c4c834e2987a/norion-bank-ab-publ-has-successfully-issued-additional-tier-1-capital-notes.pdf | SEK 300m AT1, 3M STIBOR + 4.75%. | Done |
| Inderes Norion overview | Secondary market data | https://www.inderes.se/en/companies/Norion-Bank | Current quote, market cap, calendar and company overview. | Done |
| Börsdata Norion | Secondary market data | https://borsdata.se/collector/nyckeltal | Quote and market-data cross-check. | Done |
| FI ongoing AML investigations | Regulator | https://www.fi.se/sv/bank/penningtvatt/fis-penningtvattstillsyn/pagaende-undersokningar/ | Current FI AML-process context. | Done |
| Nordic Credit Rating Norion note | Rating | https://nordiccreditrating.com/article/norion-bank-outlook-revised-positive-bb-long-term-issuer-rating-affirmed | BB+ positive outlook and credit-quality framing. | Done |

## Aktie och identitet

| Fält | Värde | Källa/status |
|---|---:|---|
| Bolag | Norion Bank AB (publ) | Primärkällor |
| Ticker | NORION | Marknadsdata |
| ISIN | SE0017831795 | Börsdata/marknadsdata |
| Marknadsplats | Nasdaq Stockholm | Bolag/marknad |
| Segment | Mid Cap | Inderes/Börsdata |
| Senaste kontrollerade kurs | 59,1 SEK | Inderes 2026-05-26 |
| Föregående stängning cross-check | 58,6 SEK | Börsdata |
| Aktier och röster | 189 782 534 | Q1 2026 |
| Börsvärde | 11 216 MSEK | Egen beräkning |
| Eget kapital Q1 | 9 769 MSEK | Q1 2026 |
| Bokvärde per aktie | 51,47 SEK | Egen beräkning |
| P/B | 1,15x | Egen beräkning |
| FY 2025 P/E | 7,8x | Egen beräkning |
| TTM P/E | 8,5x | Egen beräkning |

## Segmentdata Q1 2026

| Segment | Loan book | Loan share | Income | NIM | Operating profit | Kommentar |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Corporate | 11 959 MSEK | 23% | 190 MSEK | 5.9% | 138 MSEK | Collateral-backed SME/entrepreneur lending; average loan SEK 52m; 22-month remaining maturity. |
| Real Estate | 21 604 MSEK | 42% | 251 MSEK | 4.8% | 159 MSEK | Largest exposure; 65% senior loans; junior lending, Germany/Finland and Stage 3 workouts dominate risk. |
| Consumer | 13 956 MSEK | 27% | 285 MSEK | 7.8% | 114 MSEK | Personal loans and credit cards; 58k customers and 105k cards; major Q1 profit recovery from weak comparator. |
| Payments / Walley | 3 576 MSEK | 7% | 153 MSEK | 10.1% | 41 MSEK | BNPL/checkout/invoice payments; Q1 transaction volume SEK 5.5bn, +24% YoY; 6.8m active customers LTM. |

## Resultat och kapital

| Mått | Q1 2026 | FY 2025 | Kommentar |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Loan portfolio | 51 458 MSEK | 49 675 MSEK | +8% YoY Q1 |
| Total income | 913 MSEK | 3 847 MSEK | Q1 2025 boosted by SEK 140m Stage 3 interest |
| Net interest income | 813 MSEK | 3 460 MSEK | About 90% of income |
| Credit losses | 219 MSEK | 838 MSEK | Q1 credit loss level 1,7% |
| Net profit | 301 MSEK | 1 438 MSEK | Q1 EPS 1,5 |
| ROE | 12,1% | 15,5% | Q1 adjusted 14,0% |
| CET1 | 15,6% | 15,6% | Q1 CET1 capital 9 006 MSEK |
| Total capital ratio | 18,4% | 18,4% | AT1 issued after Q1 |
| LCR | 490% | - | Strong liquidity |
| NSFR | 128% | - | Strong liquidity |

## Kreditkvalitet Q1 2026

| Mått | Värde | Kommentar |
|---|---:|---|
| Gross loans | 56 884 MSEK | Before provisions |
| Provisions | 5 426 MSEK | 9.6% provision ratio |
| Carrying loans | 51 458 MSEK | Reported loan book |
| Stage 3 gross | 10 633 MSEK | 18,8% of gross loans |
| Stage 3 net share | 11,4% | After provisions |
| Stage 3 coverage | 45,2% | Private 60.3%, corporate 22.3% |
| Real Estate share | 42% | Largest concentration |

## Kapitalretur och aktieantal

| Åtgärd | Värde | Per-aktiebetydelse |
|---|---:|---|
| 2025 buyback | 1 000 MSEK | Cancelled in Feb 2026 |
| Cancelled shares Feb 2026 | 15 598 470 | Reduced reported share count |
| 2026 authorization | 500 MSEK | Up to about 4.5% of shares at checked price |
| Bought through 2026-05-22 | 5 904 400 | About 3.1% of issued shares |
| Spent through 2026-05-22 | 314,6 MSEK | Remaining authorization about SEK 185m |
| May 2026 AT1 | 300 MSEK | Supports Tier 1, not CET1 |
| AT1 coupon | 3M STIBOR + 4.75% | Funding cost/capital-stack complexity |

## Scenario valuation

| Scenario | Normalized profit | ROE/PB logic | Multiple / book frame | Implied value per share | What must happen |
|---|---:|---|---|---:|---|
| Bear | SEK 1.0bn | Stage 3 consumes capital, ROE below target | 0.85x book / 8-9x stressed EPS | SEK 42-47 | Credit deterioration, buybacks slow, AML/funding overhang persists |
| Base low | SEK 1.3bn | 13-14% ROE, sticky but contained Stage 3 | Around current book and earnings frame | SEK 56 | TTM-like profit, no credit break, cautious capital return |
| Base high | SEK 1.45bn | Near 15% ROE, slow Stage 3 improvement | 1.2-1.3x book / 8-9x earnings | SEK 64-69 | Buybacks continue, Stage 3 declines, Walley/Consumer hold |
| Bull | SEK 1.55-1.70bn | Clean mid-teens ROE and declining Stage 3 | 1.35-1.50x book / higher P/E | SEK 70-81 | Credit cleanup, benign AML, durable liquidity improvement |

## Catalyst matrix

| Catalyst | Direction | Timing | Probability | Evidence | Per-share impact | Disconfirming signal |
|---|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Stage 3 decline | Positive | 2026-07-14 | Medium | Q1 Stage 3 high but YoY improved | Higher P/B and buyback confidence | Stage 3 flat/up in absolute SEK |
| Credit loss level below 1.7% | Positive | 2026 | Medium | FY/Q1 level 1.7% | Higher normalized profit | Provisioning rises or write-offs exceed coverage |
| Buyback completed and cancelled | Positive | 2026 | Medium/high | SEK 314.6m spent by 2026-05-22 | EPS/BVPS accretion | Buyback paused due credit/regulator/funding |
| FI AML benign closure | Positive | 2026/2027 | Unknown | Investigation still open | Multiple/risk discount relief | Material sanction/remediation |
| Walley keeps 20%+ volume growth | Positive | 2026 | Medium | Q1 volume +24% | Mix improvement | Losses/fraud/conduct rise |
| Balder flow clears | Positive | 2026 | Medium | 47.7% distributed | Liquidity discount shrinks | Forced selling persists after buyback fades |
| Real Estate stress worsens | Negative | 2026/2027 | Medium | 42% of loan book and Stage 3 drag | Book/P/E downside | Gross/net Stage 3 clearly declines |
| Deposit costs rise | Negative | 2026/2027 | Medium | Deposit-funded balance sheet | NIM/ROE pressure | Stable deposit mix and NIM |

## Risk matrix

| Risk | Probability | Severity | Evidence | Mitigation / watch item |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| Stage 3 / credit quality | High | High | 18,8% gross Stage 3 | Absolute Stage 3 decline, coverage stability, write-offs |
| Real Estate concentration | Medium/high | High | 42% of loan book, junior exposure | LTV, geography, refinancing, workout updates |
| AML/FI process | Medium | Medium/high | Investigation and sanction handling unresolved | Final FI outcome, remediation cost |
| Deposit/funding cost | Medium | Medium | Deposits 78% of balance sheet | LCR/NSFR, pricing, rating, platform-deposit treatment |
| Buyback overreach | Medium | Medium/high | SEK 500m authorization beside Stage 3 | CET1 after stress, regulator stance |
| Governance/control | Medium | Medium | Selin/control and related-party optics | Updated ownership, related-party loan disclosure |
| Walley conduct/credit | Medium | Medium | Fast BNPL/payments growth | Losses, disputes, merchant concentration |
| M&A integration | Low/medium | Medium | Consensus/Strand small but new | AUM retention, fee margin, goodwill |